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Key Points
The Producer Price Index rose 0.5% month-over-month in March, matching February's pace but well below the 1.1% consensus estimate.
Annual PPI hit 4.0%, below the 4.6% forecast, marking the highest level since February 2023.
Core PPI, excluding food and energy, rose just 0.1% monthly versus a 0.5% forecast and slowed to 3.8% year-over-year.
So, Wall Street was all geared up for the so-called "Hormuz shock" to send wholesale prices soaring in March. The data, however, had other plans.
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According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Producer Price Index for final demand increased by 0.5% from February to March. That matched the previous month's pace but landed way below the 1.1% increase economists were expecting.
Looking at the yearly picture, PPI came in at 4.0%—again, below the 4.6% consensus. It's worth noting, though, that's up from 3.4% in February and represents the highest annual rate since February 2023.
The story was similar when you strip out the volatile food and energy categories. Core PPI rose a mere 0.1% on the month, missing the 0.5% forecast. Year-over-year, it decelerated to 3.8%, compared to expectations of 4.1%.
Here's a quick look at how the numbers stacked up:
Metric | Actual | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
PPI MoM | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
PPI YoY | 4.0% | 4.6% | 3.4% |
Core PPI MoM | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% (revised from 0.5%) |
Core PPI YoY | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.9% |
So, the big takeaway? For now, the feared inflationary spike from geopolitical tensions hasn't shown up in the producer price data. The market was braced for a shock, but got more of a gentle nudge instead.
Further Reading
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