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Key Points
Nvidia has stopped producing its H200 AI chips intended for the Chinese market due to persistent U.S. export approval hurdles.
The company is shifting manufacturing capacity at its contract chipmaker, TSMC, away from the H200 and toward its next-generation Vera Rubin hardware.
While Nvidia recently received U.S. licenses to ship "small amounts" of H200s to China, the production halt suggests it doesn't expect significant near-term sales there.
U.S. export rules have changed, moving from automatic denials to case-by-case reviews for shipments to China, potentially reopening the market in the future.
The strategic pivot comes as Nvidia, a leader in the AI chip boom, recently became the first company to surpass a $4.5 trillion market cap.
So, here's what's happening with Nvidia Corp (NVDA) and its chips for China. It's a bit of a strategic shuffle. The company is adjusting its production plans because, well, selling advanced AI chips to China is still complicated thanks to U.S. export rules. The latest move? Halting production of its H200 AI chips that were supposed to go to China.
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Instead, Nvidia is telling its manufacturing partner, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd (TSM), to use that production capacity for something else: its next-generation hardware, codenamed Vera Rubin. This is according to a report from the Financial Times, which cited people familiar with the matter. Think of it as Nvidia clearing the deck at the factory to make room for the new, shiny thing.
This is interesting because just last week, Nvidia said it had actually gotten U.S. government licenses to ship "small amounts" of those very H200 chips to customers in China. So, they have permission, but they're not making the chips. That tells you something. It suggests the company may not be expecting to sell a whole lot of H200s in China anytime soon, as Reuters pointed out. Why get the factory humming for a trickle of sales?
The whole saga has been a regulatory rollercoaster. Earlier this year, the Trump administration approved sales of the China-bound H200 chips. But then, shipments got stuck because of various guardrails and reviews in the approval process. A U.S. Commerce Department official said last month that, despite the approval, no H200 chips had actually been sold to Chinese customers. Zero.
The rules have changed a bit recently, though. Shipments to China and Macau are no longer automatically denied. Now, they're reviewed on a case-by-case basis. That could potentially reopen the market down the line, but for now, Nvidia seems to be betting its production capacity is better used elsewhere.
As for the stock, Nvidia shares were down a slight 0.21% at $182.66 in premarket trading on Thursday. The company, which rode the AI wave to become the first ever to top a $4.5 trillion market cap last October, is clearly making a calculated move. It's pausing on a market full of uncertainty (China) to fast-track its future (Vera Rubin). In the high-stakes chip game, sometimes the best move is to redeploy your resources.
Further Reading
Put $1,000 into this stock NOW [Not NVDA] (From Stansberry Research)
End of America Update (Porter & Co)