Markets Bounce Back After Correction, Eyeing Jobs Data and Trump's 'Reasonable' Iran Comments

Inside: Pre-IPO Ticker + The Next Elon Musk? (Banyan Hill)

So, after a pretty rough Friday, the market is trying to get back on its feet. U.S. stock futures were higher on Monday, which is a welcome sight after last week's sell-off officially pushed the major indices into correction territory—that's down more than 10% from their 52-week highs. It's a short week ahead with markets closed for Good Friday, but don't get too comfortable. The March employment report is still coming, and investors will be watching.

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Behind the Markets

Meanwhile, over the weekend, former President Donald Trump was talking about Iran. He suggested the U.S. could seize Iran's oil infrastructure, including a key export hub, calling it his "favorite thing" and saying the U.S. has "a lot of options." But in a bit of a twist, he also characterized Iran's new leaders as "very reasonable" and indicated a possible agreement between the two countries. So, the geopolitical tea leaves are being read once again.

In the bond market, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 4.39%, with the two-year at 3.89%. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, the market is pricing in a 96.4% chance that the Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged at its April meeting. So, for now, the expectation is a pause.

Here's how the major index futures were looking early Monday:

The big ETFs were moving higher in premarket trading too. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), which tracks the S&P 500, was up 0.61% at $637.97. The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ), tracking the Nasdaq 100, advanced 0.59% to $565.89.

Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) rose 0.66% after announcing the renewal and expansion of its long-standing partnership with Stellantis NV (STLA). It's a new five-year deal continuing a collaboration that started back in 2016. Market data indicates PLTR maintains a weak price trend over the medium term but shows strength in the long and short medium terms, with a solid growth score.

Rezolve AI PLC (RZLV) jumped 12.42% after raising its revenue outlook. The company is now targeting $350 million in annual revenue and $500 million in annual recurring revenue (ARR) by 2026, following its acquisition of Reward Loyalty for $230 million. Market data shows RZLV maintains a weak trend across the long, short, and medium terms.

Entera Bio Ltd. (ENTX) dropped 8.85% after posting a loss of 6 cents per share for the fourth quarter. Market data indicates ENTX has a weak price trend over the short, medium, and long terms, though it holds a solid growth score.

TotalEnergies SE (TTE) rose 2.01% after signing a long-term partnership agreement with EDF Group to secure low-carbon electricity supply for its Refining & Chemicals sites in France. Market data shows TTE maintains a strong trend across the short, long, and medium terms, with a solid value score.

Progress Software Corp. (PRGS) was up a modest 0.04% as analysts expect it to post quarterly earnings of $1.57 per share on revenue of $246.40 million after the closing bell. Market data indicates PRGS has a weak price trend in the short, medium, and long terms, with a moderate quality score.

Friday was another tough day. Consumer staples and energy stocks managed to close higher, but most S&P 500 sectors ended in the red, led by sharp declines in financials, consumer discretionary, and communication services. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 2.1%, marking its fifth straight weekly loss. The Nasdaq slid 3.2% over the week, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated by 0.9%.

Here's the Friday close snapshot:

Mohamed El-Erian is painting a pretty sobering picture right now. He talks about the U.S. economy and stock market grappling with "stagflationary winds" triggered by the expanding Middle East conflict. With all major indices in correction territory, El-Erian warns the market is finally internalizing a "new realization": the economic damage is already significant, and policy headroom is dangerously thin.

He highlights a shifting landscape where resilient growth is being undermined by energy supply shortages and sticky inflation. Investors, he says, must now brace for "a deeper, more prolonged disruption to the global economy" and the "heightened risk of credit and liquidity risks feeding into one another." This environment has effectively dismantled the safety of the classic 60/40 portfolio, which recently suffered one of its worst monthly declines.

Looking ahead, El-Erian expects the narrative to be defined by three unsettling themes: "volatility, dispersion, and fragmentation." As central banks shift toward a more hawkish stance to combat rising prices, he cautions that the path forward remains in "escalation mode," leaving the markets with far more questions than answers about where this all ends.

It's a busy week for data, even with the shortened trading schedule. Here's what's on the calendar:

In commodities, crude oil futures were trading higher in early New York session, up 1.23% to hover around $100.87 per barrel. Gold was also up, with the spot price rising 0.96% to around $4,535.91 per ounce. Its last record high was $5,595.46 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was 0.10% higher at the 100.2500 level.

In crypto, Bitcoin was trading 1.59% higher at $67,728.30 per coin over the last 24 hours.

Globally, Asian markets closed lower on Monday, with declines in China's CSI 300, Hong Kong's Hang Seng, India's Nifty 50, South Korea's Kospi, Japan's Nikkei 225, and Australia's ASX 200. European markets, however, were mostly higher in early trade.

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