IMF Chief Says Iran War's Economic Impact Is Already 'Baked In' As Oil Prices Surge Past $100

The SpaceX IPO is a trap (StocksToTrade)

Here's a thing about markets: they're pretty good at pricing in bad news. So when International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva says the economic impact of the U.S.-Iran war is already "baked" into global forecasts, she's basically telling us what we already know—but with the authority of someone who runs the IMF.

I'm going to save you from yourself right now.

Because the SpaceX IPO is just days away and I already know what you're probably thinking.

You're thinking you'll buy shares the second it goes public, ride the Elon hype, and cash in.

I've seen this movie a hundred times and it ends badly.

Not for Elon, he'll pocket around $625 billion overnight. He'll be fine.

Not for the Wall Street banks who underwrote the deal. They got their slice months ago. They'll be fine too.

The ones who get hurt? Regular people. Those who show up on IPO day, buy at the top, and spend the next six months wondering what went wrong.

I'm not going to sugarcoat this — if your plan is to buy SpaceX like everyone else on opening day, you are the exit liquidity.

That's the game. That's how it's always been.

But here's what pisses me off: it doesn't have to be that way. Not this time.

There's a pre-IPO SpaceX play available right now that almost nobody is talking about. A way to get positioned before the herd stampedes in on day one.

I'm not talking about some waitlist only insiders and millionaires can get on. I'm talking about something you can do today, from a regular brokerage account.

But I'll be blunt — this won't last. Once SpaceX begins trading on public markets, this window slams shut.

So, stop planning your IPO-day buy order and go here instead.

You'll thank me later.

Tim Bohen

Georgieva made the comments on CBS News' "Face the Nation" on Sunday, citing disruptions to energy flows and infrastructure damage across the Middle East. "We are going to see some drag of this crisis over the year," she said, "but if we have peace, of course, conditions are likely to improve faster."

That's the diplomatic way of saying: this conflict is already costing the global economy, and it'll keep costing us until it stops.

Meanwhile, in the real world where tankers actually sail through narrow straits, oil prices are telling a more immediate story. The conflict has disrupted shipping routes, damaged energy infrastructure in the Gulf, and raised concerns about attacks on key gas facilities. Markets initially rallied after reports of a temporary ceasefire, with oil prices easing and stocks rising. But then the truce collapsed, tensions escalated around the Strait of Hormuz—that critical chokepoint where a huge chunk of the world's oil passes through—and everything reversed.

Oil and fuel markets surged sharply. Crude oil rose to 104.42, up 7.85 (that's 8.13%) as of early Monday morning. Brent crude climbed to 102.73, up 7.53 (7.91%). Natural gas edged higher to 2.679, gaining 0.031 (1.17%).

But the really interesting moves were in refined products. RBOB gasoline rose to 3.1712, up 0.1339 (4.41%), and ultra-low sulfur diesel jumped to 4.1006, up 0.339 (9.01%). Diesel up 9% in a day—that's the kind of move that makes trucking companies and shipping lines very nervous, very quickly.

So when Georgieva says the impact is "baked in," she's talking about the macroeconomic forecasts—the GDP growth numbers, the inflation projections, the stuff that shows up in IMF reports. But in the markets, "baked in" doesn't mean "done moving." It just means traders have already adjusted their expectations for ongoing disruption. And as long as tankers are avoiding the Strait of Hormuz and refineries are worrying about attacks, those expectations will keep getting repriced, sometimes violently.

The takeaway here is simple: the war is already hurting the global economy, and it'll keep hurting until it ends. The markets know this. They've priced it in. But "priced in" doesn't mean stable—it just means volatile at a higher level.

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