Elon Musk already made me a “wealthy man” (The Oxford Club)
Key Points
Adobe's stock fell sharply after the unexpected announcement that longtime CEO Shantanu Narayen will step down after 18 years, overshadowing a strong quarterly earnings beat.
The company reported robust user growth, exceeding 850 million monthly active users, with its Creative freemium accounts surging 50% year-over-year.
Despite the positive metrics, the stock's technical picture shows it is in a downtrend, trading well below its key moving averages and near its 52-week low.
Analysts maintain a generally bullish long-term view with an average price target of $390.45, but several have recently lowered near-term targets.
Adobe's significant weighting in several major ETFs means large fund flows could mechanically impact the stock's price in the near term.
So, here's a classic market puzzle: a company reports quarterly numbers that beat expectations, shows impressive user growth, and affirms its full-year guidance. And the stock... tanks. Welcome to the story of Adobe Inc. (ADBE) on Friday.
Dear Reader,
After signing more than 220 Executive Orders… more than any president in American history… Donald Trump is preparing for one final move.
On April 30th — I have every reason to believe he will sign his Final Executive Order.
When I say that it’s his FINAL executive order…
It’s not because he’s leaving office.
It’s not because he’s sick or having any health issues.
It’s not because he’ll be impeached for the Epstein files, or some dark, twisted scandal.
There’s another reason that, despite a long future in front of him, this will be Trump’s very last Executive Order…
Click here or below for this unbelievable story…
Regards,
Ian King
Chief Strategist, Strategic Fortunes
The software giant's shares fell sharply in premarket trading after it unexpectedly announced that CEO Shantanu Narayen will step down following an 18-year reign. He'll stay on as board chair once a successor is found, but the market clearly didn't like the surprise. It's one of those moments where the "who" running the company suddenly seems more important to investors than the "what" the company just accomplished.
The Numbers Were Actually Pretty Good
Let's start with the part that, in a normal world, would be the headline. On Thursday, Adobe reported fiscal first-quarter revenue of $6.40 billion and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $6.06. Both figures topped analyst estimates, which were calling for $6.28 billion and $5.87, respectively.
Looking ahead, the company's guidance was also solid. For the current quarter, it expects revenue between $6.43 billion and $6.48 billion, compared to the consensus estimate of $6.43 billion. Adjusted EPS is forecast at $5.80 to $5.85, above the estimated $5.68. For the full fiscal year, Adobe affirmed its previous outlook for revenue of $25.90 billion to $26.10 billion and adjusted EPS of $23.30 to $23.50.
Users Are Flocking In, Especially for Free Stuff
Digging into the details from the company's conference call reveals a business that's far from struggling. Adobe disclosed it now has over 850 million monthly active users (MAUs) across its key products like Acrobat, Creative Cloud, Express, and its AI tool, Firefly. That's a 17% increase from a year ago.
Even more striking is the growth in its free offerings. Creative freemium accounts—think free versions of tools like Express, Firefly, and Photoshop—now exceed 80 million MAUs. That's a 50% year-over-year jump. Management said user growth is accelerating and expects momentum from Firefly and Express, combined with rising AI adoption, to pick up speed throughout the year.
The company also reported strong growth in its enterprise-focused platforms, with Adobe Experience Platform (AEP) & Apps and Adobe GenStudio seeing year-over-year growth of over 30%. Looking to fiscal 2026, Adobe anticipates total annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth of 10.2%.
But the Stock Chart Tells a Different Story
Despite these healthy fundamentals, the stock's technical picture has been ugly. As of this report, Adobe is trading 7.1% below its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and a whopping 21.3% below its 100-day SMA. Sellers have been in control for a while. Over the past 12 months, shares are down 28.6% and are sitting much closer to the 52-week low of $244.28 than the high.
For the chart-watchers: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 44.68, which is in neutral territory but reflects muted demand. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is at -2.3162 versus a signal line of -5.3726. That's actually a bullish configuration for the indicator, suggesting the downside momentum might be easing, even if the overall trend remains weak. Some technicians see this RSI level with a bullish MACD as a hint that momentum could be leaning toward a positive shift.
Key levels to watch are resistance at $285.50 and support at $244.50.
What Are the Analysts Saying?
The analyst community still has a generally favorable long-term view. The stock carries a consensus Buy rating with an average price target of $390.45, implying significant upside from current levels. However, recent actions show some near-term caution.
TD Cowen maintained a Hold rating but lowered its price target to $325.00 on March 10.
Wells Fargo maintained an Overweight rating but lowered its target to $405.00 on March 9.
RBC Capital maintained an Outperform rating and held its target steady at $430.00 on March 9.
Looking further ahead, the next major earnings report is estimated for June 11, 2026. Analysts are currently forecasting EPS of $5.23 (up from $5.06 year-over-year) on revenue of $6.43 billion (up from $5.87 billion). The stock's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio sits around 16.2x, which suggests a valuation in line with its peers.
A Look at Broader Market Factors
Adobe isn't just trading on its own merits; it's a major component of several exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This means money flowing in or out of these funds can force automatic buying or selling of Adobe shares, regardless of the company-specific news.
In terms of broader market signals, a generic analysis of the stock suggests its momentum is weak, its quality score is neutral, and its value score is also weak. The takeaway here is that while the business is executing, the stock's trend is poor and the valuation isn't seen as a screaming bargain, leading many traders to wait for a clearer sign of stabilization.
The Bottom Line: Adobe shares were down 7.68% at $249.06 in premarket trading on Friday. The company delivered a quarter that, by the numbers, should have been celebrated. But in the market, leadership transitions matter—a lot. Investors are now weighing strong user growth and AI potential against the uncertainty of who will steer the ship next. For now, the uncertainty is winning.
Further Reading
Put $1,000 into this stock NOW [Not NVDA] (From Stansberry Research)
End of America Update (Porter & Co)