Beware the Morning of March 31, 2026... (Behind The Markets)
Key Points
Bill Ackman and Michael Burry are jointly highlighting Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as a "stupidly cheap" investment with 10X potential.
Their bullish thesis hinges on a renewed political push to end the federal conservatorship and the "Net Worth Sweep" they call "outright theft."
The call aligns with recent major policy shifts in the U.S. housing market under the Trump administration, which investors believe could pave the way for a lucrative exit.
Ackman argues the companies have already overpaid their 2008 bailout by $25 billion and is directly calling on President Trump to "Stop the Steal."
Burry emphasizes the rarity of such a clear, high-conviction opportunity in today's market.
When two of Wall Street's most famous—and famously contrarian—investors start saying the same thing, it's probably worth listening. Right now, Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC) are that thing.
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Bill Ackman of Pershing Square and Michael Burry of "Big Short" fame are making a unified, loud call for investors to look past the broader market's worries. They're pointing instead at what they see as a massive, asymmetric bet sitting in plain sight: the two mortgage giants.
In a recent post, Ackman advised investors to "ignore the bears" and the doom-and-gloom headlines. He predicted a "large peace dividend" after what he called a "one-sided war," and then got specific. "Fannie and Freddie are stupidly cheap," he wrote. "Asymmetry at its best. They could be a 10X and it could happen soon."
Burry, who is not exactly known for effusive public endorsements, quickly amplified the message. Sharing Ackman's post, he added, "Cannot emphasize enough how rare this is in this market." He had previously praised Ackman's economic arguments about the companies, noting that treating their shareholders fairly is crucial for the integrity of the whole financial system.
So, what's the actual bet here? It's not really about the underlying mortgage business. It's about politics and a 16-year-old government takeover.
The bullishness is tied directly to a renewed effort to end the federal conservatorship that Fannie and Freddie have been under since the 2008 financial crisis. Ackman recently published a lengthy manifesto accusing the government of "outright theft" through an Obama-era policy called the "Net Worth Sweep." That policy started directing 100% of the companies' profits to the U.S. Treasury.
Ackman's argument is that the original bailout deal has not just been repaid, but overpaid. He claims the initial $193 billion rescue has been overpaid by about $25 billion. His pitch is now pointedly political: he's calling on President Donald Trump to honor the original contractual terms and end the sweep. Reminding the President of his past criticisms of the policy, Ackman declared, "Now that you have the time, Mr. President, let's Stop the Steal!"
This high-profile investor pressure isn't happening in a vacuum. It coincides with some major shifts in U.S. housing policy. Recently, President Trump directed Fannie and Freddie to acquire $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities. The goal is to boost housing affordability amid volatile interest rates. At the same time, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) scrapped strict, Biden-era roofing insurance requirements, which should significantly lower costs for new homebuyers.
The theory from Ackman and Burry seems to be that as the government leans on these companies more to execute its housing goals, the political path to finally releasing them from conservatorship—and letting shareholders potentially reap the rewards—becomes clearer. They're betting that a highly lucrative exit is finally on the horizon. In a market full of expensive-looking stocks, they're calling this one of the rare, obvious bargains left.
Further Reading
Put $1,000 into this stock NOW [Not NVDA] (From Stansberry Research)
End of America Update (Porter & Co)